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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.